Sunday, November 23, 2008

Petroleum-Related Musings

“Is It Worth the Trip for Cheaper Gas?”

Okay... so gasoline prices have come down to less than half of their former peak. Fundamentally, I knew they would, although the naysayers and doomsayers had me second-guessing myself.

The question is less important, perhaps, now that we’re paying less again, but it’s an interesting question all-the-same:

Is it worth driving out of your way for cheaper gas?

Of course you know, the simple answer is “maybe.”

There are a lot of know-it-all people, it seems, who would try to make this a yes-or-no question, but it’s more complicated than that. (Sort of unlike the question “do you save money by leaving your air conditioning on during they day, or by turning it off?” That is a stupid question. If it is not running, you are paying nothing. It doesn’t “work harder” when you turn it back on. It’s either “on” or “not on.” You save money if you turn it off. Duh.)

Assuming it’s not already too late, I would like to respectfully ask that you refrain from shaking your head or rolling your eyes at the notion of me working out the formula for this. Fact is, the answer is less interesting than the process of discerning the answer to this critical question:

What exactly, am I trying to solve?

Condensing the question properly often simplifies the solution substantially.

Question: How much money do I need to save in order to make it worth a trip “out of my way” in order to purchase discounted gasoline?

You remember “word problems” in school? I always remember hearing people say things like “I hate word problems!” Not me. Problems in life are made up of words. So here’s the “word answer” to the problem above:

Answer (simple): “You have to save enough to pay for the gas required for the trip.”

Yes, that’s the simple answer.

Answer (simple, wise-guy):Remember: You have to save enough to pay for the gas required for the trip, just to break even.”

How do we turn that into numbers that make sense?

I thought, and thought, and thought some more about this. I came up with several formulas that seemed to make sense, but they all disagreed with each other.

Finally, here’s where I ended up.

Answer (complex): “You will have to buy additional gas for the trip, in order to have the same amount of gas when you return, as you would have purchased locally. Figure out how much gas you need to buy to make the trip by taking the round trip distance and dividing that by the miles-per-gallon you expect on the little outing to the gas station. Add that to the amount of gas you need to buy, then multiply by the cheaper price, while multiplying the originally-desired quantity of gas by the higher price.”

Example:

The cheaper gas station is 8 miles out-of-my-way. My round-trip distance is 16 miles.

I get 20 miles per gallon.

Taking these first two, dividing “miles” by “miles per gallon,” I find that if I g to the distant gas station, I will need to buy 0.75 additional gallons in order to end up with the same amount when all is said and done.

The amount of gas I want to purchase is 15 gallons.

Local Total Cost = Local (high) price of gas x 15 gallons

Distant Total Cost = Distant (lower) price of gas x 15.75 gallons

If Local Total Cost is less than Distant Total Cost, stay home!

But what if it really is less?

Local = $1.869 x 15 gallons = $28.035.
Distant = $1.759 x 15.75 gallons = $27.704.

You’ll save money.

“Wait,” you object, “if the price of gas was 11¢ lower, why does your calculation show that I only saved 2.2¢ per gallon for the 15 gallons? How can that be?”

Ah... remember... the gas to make the trip wasn’t free. To end up with 15 gallons in the tank, we had to buy extra when we got there. We used half of that extra on the way, and half of it on the way back... and now we are still 15 gallons ahead.

And we saved a whole 33¢ total for the whole tank, even though gas was 11¢ cheaper... or, to think of it another way, we got 12 gallons at full price and only 3 gallons at the price difference we figured up in our heads when we saw the difference in price.

Hmph. Math sucks.

To make matters worse, the more expensive the gas gets, the greater the difference between “here” and “there” must be before the trip is worth it.

Math really sucks.

Incidentally, this is probably related to one of those things they taught you in school would be “useful someday,” though they never mentioned just how.



Reverse Gas Drive-Off?

You know what a “gas drive-off” is. It’s when you don’t pay for your gasoline after you purchase it. I suppose, if you purchase diesel fuel, that would be a “diesel drive-off,” but I’d bet that if you were listening to a police scanner when units were dispatched to investigate such an offense, that you’d still here it called a “gas drive-off.” What do you think?

The Oklahoma Pump Pirates’ Act apparently prescribes loss of one’s driver’s license, a fine of up to $500, and/or up to 6 months in jail for stealing gas, but this (along with the need to be a law-abiding citizen) isn’t enough for some people.[1]

As you can see above — and “ha, ha,” if you don’t live in Oklahoma and this price looks cheap to you — gas prices have returned to reasonable levels.

But, as prices went up, so did the incidence of drive-offs, so in Oklahoma, now, we have to pay first... and naturally, once “they” take something away, “they” seldom give it back – so even though prices are back down, we’re still carrying our cash inside.[2]

But a few days ago, I stopped to fill up. This particular gas station is very conveniently located to use as a pit stop even if you don’t need fuel, and has a very handy Indian casino (the “Seven Clans Little Bit o’ Paradise Casino”) with smoking permitted and occasional free soft drinks. The point underlying all of that detail is that I don’t always buy gas when I stop at that particular spot.

I went inside, did some “business,” pre-paid the attendant $20.00 (amazing – I only needed $20 worth of gas! That hasn’t happened recently) and walked back out to my car.

Having the severe case of ADD that I have, I contemplated the fact that I very easily could have gotten off on some other thought, and forgotten all about the fact that I had just prepaid for a little over 10 gallons of gas… driven off, and forgotten all about it – at least until I tried to go to sleep that night.

This, my friends, could have been a “reverse gas drive-off” – instead of taking their gas without paying them, I would have been paying them without taking their gas.

What would they do?

When would they figure it out?

How many managers and supervisors would have to be called in to straighten out the mess?

I pondered this. Naturally, right? (Fortunately, I didn’t get so engrossed in the thought that I actually did what I was think about.)

They might not even notice until the next person pulled up at the pump.

If that person were not paying attention, they could have just pulled the hose, selected their grade, filled ‘er up, and gone inside. At which point, they would say something like “I’ve got $18 on pump #6,” and the attendant would give them $2.00 change.

It would be pandelirium.[3]

Or, if the next guy went right in to pay, and said something like “I need $30.00 on #6,” the attendant might ask, “Do you mean $10 more, or an additional $30 for a total of $50?”

They would probably send the cops after me and arrest me for causing the chaos that would doubtlessly ensue.

The lesson here is clear:

Current Rule: Do not pump your gas without paying.

New/Corollary Rule: Do not pay for your gas and not pump it.



“Mom, I Have Gasoline.”

Bit o’ trivia: When I was a little kid, I did what kids do. At least some kids. At least, me. Heck, I have no idea what other little kids did, because I was a weird one. Witness:

I sometimes associated things together that didn’t belong together. Case in point, “gas” vs. “gasoline.” I always assumed these were synonyms for the same thing. To my eventual embarrassment, they are not.

First, gasoline is not a “gas,” by any proper definition. It’s a liquid.

Second, the gas you purchase from the underground pipes to heat your house, heat your water, and cook your food is always called “natural gas,” not “natural gasoline.”

Third, and most importantly, the gas you expel that is politely called “flatulence” is most definitely not called “gasoline.”

Unless you’re me and you’re a little kid.

Scenario: A sudden stink surfaces in a somewhat-confined space. The question, asked by me and/or my little sister, growing up, was not “who cut the cheese?” The question was “who has gasoline?”

There is a more proper way to phrase this question, however… because a person who “has gasoline” may simply have stomach cramps, and the “gasoline” that is “on their tummy” may not escape.

So “has” is not correct. The operative verb associated with this type of “gasoline” — again, by the definition of me and my sister — is “to let,” as in, “Did you let some gasoline?”

Srsly.

And still, to this day, in my mind — despite the fact that I know better, without question — the word “gasoline” is still associated with… that.

...which is why, when I go to purchase fuel for my vehicle, I say, “I’m going to purchase some fuel.”



[1] I surfed the web to confirm these details, and I can’t find it. Not sure why that might be. I did see where the idiots in the State Senate were pushing to make a law that allowed police not to bother investigating a gas drive-off at gas stations where prepayment was not required, while simultaneously making it illegal for a gas station attendant to permit
anyone to dispense gas before paying... which is pretty stupid... and typical of lawmakers. Put the burden on the honest people, not the criminals.

[2] Admittedly, some gas stations do have “pump start” cards for cash customers – they know who you are, so if you start the pump with your card, you’re still busted if you drive away. A pretty clever innovation, I must say.

[3] No, you’re an idiot, not me. This is a joke phrase, and not even an original one.

No comments: