We have a High Risk Area...

So, yesterday, I wrote about the convective outlook. Interestingly, today, we have a real-time example of a "high risk" area, and the perspective of the NWS... The National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center says:

A regional outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes expected today over parts of Nebraska/Iowa/South Dakota.

This is not a live image, it's a snapshot of the convective outlook from 5/29/2008.

Nice Weather We're Having...? (Updated Daily!)

— 2008-08-30 10:00 ETA:

Actually, some of the stuff in the next eta is kind of not actually, technically, accurate, in any way, at all.

What I mean by that is that I actually didn’t have any good throughts at all about what I wanted the blog to be... I only really knew what I wanted it not to be. But what I started out wasn’t the inspired, eloquent, mindful product that it is trying to become... that was actually evolutionary, not revolutionary.

I already had a blog at the time, and it wasn’t about “me” in the same way this one isn’t — i.e., it’s only about me by extension.

But in computer science, we have a phrase: “always plan to throw the first one away; you will, anyhow.” The idea here is, your first iteration of something will not go the way you want it to go, and will then get out of hand where you can’t manage it or mold it back in to what you want it to be ... so don’t be disappointed if you have to take what you learned, scrap everything, and start over.

As convenient (or at least consoling) as that sounds, there is a corollary: “Beware the second-system effect.”

After throwing the first one away, you launch on building iteration number two. And that slaughters you in the opposite way: you plan so carefully that you over-plan. You over-equip. You over-design. You go overboard, with a system so perfect as to be un-implementable, unwieldy, unaffordable, or otherwise unworkable.

I would build in redundant systems upon redundant systems... and I would probably end up with a very elegant, but impractical system, that would be so expensive that it would be rough to make a profit.

If I had my telephone company central office to redo from scratch, oh my, oh my would I redo it. I’d plan to need more capacity than I ever thought I would need. An example of this is the Primary Rate Interface capacity of my Central Office switch. It now has 800% of the PRI capacity that it had when I arrived, and I’ve installed a second switch to accommodate the need for even more growth.

“That’s great,” you say, “you’re growing more than you anticipated.” Sure, yes, that’s a “good problem to have,” but bear in mind that even a “good problem” is still a “problem.”

And here’s the real problem: When I found out how much capacity we had when I arrived, my reaction was, “Wow, that was money wasted — I don’t see how we could ever need as much as they bought.”

Ouch. Granted, things have changed that were not reflected in my crystal ball, but it does not change the fact that I literally underestimated the need for deployment, thinking that 12% of our current capacity was more than we would ever have needed. That’s a big underestimation. Adding insult to injury, the growth was very “adolescent” — awkward, and in spurts. A better forecast would have been most helpful along the way.

Since then, I purchased a major upgrade, adding an additional system, with 175% of the capacity of the existing system... taking my potential to 275% of present. However, in an attempt to avoid the second system difficulty, the new system is only planned through 175%. The actual implementation of the new system was purchased at 70% of current capacity. (Remember, this is an additive, not a replacement). So the plans are in place for the new system to grow to its maximum capacity without growing pains, but I saved somewhere in the neighborhood of $180,000 - $240,000 simply by effectively planning, without actually purchasing.

So I’m stuck with the first iteration, which has grown almost beyond my ability to tame it. Success is nice, and we’ve been very successful in selling customer service and satisfaction as the product, instead of trying to make the commodity the product (i.e., instead of better, cheaper, faster, it’s great, cheap, and fast, but the comparisons of the commodity are less important than the indispensable human element that you don’t get — you cannot get — from AT&T.

Bottom line: I was being far too generous to myself in hindsight by saying I intended all of these lofty ideals for what would eventually become “Ardency Personified.” I didn’t mean to be dishonest with you, o loyal reader... it just happened this way, one idea at a time.

— 2008-07-29 13:30 ETA:

When I first began this blog at the suggestion of a friend, I had many thoughts that I thought would be interesting and appropriate to this forum... although I didn’t quite know where to start. I had a vision for the blog: I didn’t want it to be “about me” or public exposees of the private dealings of me, my friends, or my archenemy — my brain. I wanted it to be:

I wanted a blog, not to pontificate, but to entertain, inform, educate, and share knowledge and opinions about things that are amusing or important. Principles, truth, and humor are all important components of who I am.

On the particular day I began the blog, the weather was on my mind: it was spring storm season here in Tornado Alley, and sure enough, as the next day’s post indicated, there was a high risk area defined. This content was taken from my MySpace page, updated, and clarified. I’ve also set up the images as a continuous source of up-to-date information: The overlay map is pulled live from the Storm Prediction Center web site, and the convective outlook is updated hourly on this post, since the SPC does not often update them more than once every few hours.

Here's a little weather information for ya...

The “Convective Outlook” from the National Weather Service shows the areas of the country where thunderstorms are most likely to fire. Be ye not deceived by the terminology:

• Slight Risk: Slight doesn't mean a slight chance of thunderstorms... it means thunderstorms are definitely expected to occur, and there's a chance for scattered severe thunderstorms.
  
• Moderate Risk: Thunderstorms are expected, and many of them are expected to be severe.
  
• High Risk: Clean the cobwebs out of the cellar, because you may very likely need it. A high risk means there is expected to be a large number of very dangerous storms, strong tornados, high winds, and large hail.
  

...although, like all things weather, the precise locations within any of the highlighted areas that will actually be impacted are impossible to pinpoint. The Risk Areas should be interpreted as just that -- a “risk area.” The brown/orange lines indicate the “general thunderstorm” zone, which is an area where there might be “ordinary” thunderstorms (heavy rain at times, lightning, small hail).

These images are automatically updated every few hours, although you shouldn't trust this blog for your planning or safety.
Here's the Convective Outlook from the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center:


Here's the Convective Outlook again, overlaid with Active Watches and Warnings, plus National Radar.